Toronto - The aging of Canada's population is only one among several factors that could lead to serious shortages of skilled labour in coming years.
A study by two professors at the University of Western Ontario suggests factors such as working conditions and length of training and education could be just as important. Employers and policymakers must look beyond demographics to devise policies that will fend off a widespread scarcity of skilled workers.
"Workforce aging is not the only, nor necessarily the most significant determinant of skill shortages," said Julie Ann McMullin, co-author of the report published by Canadian Policy Research Networks in Ottawa.
"Other factors will contribute very much to potential labour shortages."
While some sectors might experience difficulty in finding qualified employees, the study concluded that it is inappropriate to say a general skills crisis is looming because of age.
"It does seem likely that there will be hot spots of acute skill shortages, localized in terms of geography and industry or occupation," the report said.
The authors took an in-depth look at four sectors in Ontario: nursing, information technology, skilled trades in manufacturing, and the biotechnology sector.
The report notes that nurses, for example, are among the most likely to experience high cumulative retirement rates in the next decade even though nurses, as a group, are not among the oldest workers.
Much of the churn -- and inability to recruit younger workers -- can be attributed to the demands of the job itself: long hours, stress and shifts.
By contrast, the information technology sector has a young demographic profile, which may make recruiting harder as the population ages.
That suggests that employers in the IT field will need to offer other incentives, such as better wages, in order to attract new workers.
"Even in a very young workforce, there can still be skill shortages that aren't related to aging," said McMullin.
"One of the issues is making these jobs attractive to all sorts of different groups of workers."
Census data from Statistics Canada confirm the country's average age is rising rapidly. Several groups -- business, labour and government -- have warned Canada will suffer a widespread shortage of skilled workers as a result.
Immigration Minister Judy Sgro said recently the wave of retiring baby boomers threatens to swamp the economy by leaving gaping holes in the labour market.
The study said there are several ways to increase the ability of labour markets to meet the demand for skills, including immigration policies tailored to certain sectors. It also suggests policies that remove accreditation barriers to qualified immigrants and boost the participation of aboriginal people, single mothers and other under-represented groups in the workforce.
Phased retirement, in which people are able to withdraw from work gradually, would also be useful.
Perkel, Colin. (2004, September 27). Aging called minor factor in looming skills crisis; Demands of job play a role, study says. Hamilton Spectator.
